1. FSV Mainz 05 VS FC St. Pauli

This match is a match in the 17th round of the 2025-2026 Bundesliga season, which will be played at 22:30 Beijing time on December 21, 2025, with Mainz at home to Opel Arena to face newly promoted Saint-Pauli. The betting direction that users pay attention to is "Over/Under Under 2.5 Goals", and its corresponding odds are 1.12 for home wins and 0.75 for away wins.

In terms of Mainz, as a mid-table team in the Bundesliga, its performance so far this season may be relatively stable, with home defense as the basis for its points and average offensive efficiency, resulting in a tendency to play small balls in the game. For St. Pauli, as a promoted horse, its tactical strategy may be relatively conservative, focusing on solid defense and efficient counter-attacks, and the ability to score goals may be limited when playing away, and the number of goals conceded is also strictly controlled. Both teams' recent style of play is likely to be cautious, providing fundamental support for the small-ball pattern.

The two teams have played each other many times in the Bundesliga and Bundesliga in history, but given that St. Pauli has been in the Bundesliga for a long time, the recent meeting may take place in the Bundesliga. Past matchups have been fierce but not necessarily many goals, especially in key promotion or relegation battles, where the game has often been more close. When newly promoted horses face established teams away from home in the top flight, their primary goal is usually to remain unbeaten, which may further dampen the game's goal expectations.

are extremely tilted for the odds setting of "under 2.5 goals" (1.12 home win, 0.75 away win). Away win odds of 0.75 are at a very low level, which strongly suggests that the bookies are expecting a game with a very high probability of under 2.5 total goals, and the market expects it to be a game with few goals. The odds of a home win of 1.12 are also well below the regular value, further confirming the general market expectation for the small ball. Such a low payout reflects a comprehensive judgment of the tactical style, recent form of the two teams and the strategic importance of the game (which may be close to the winter break), all of which point to a low score.

Based on the above analysis, the possibility of a "under 2.5 goals" result in this game is extremely high. The reasons are as follows:1. Tactical: Mainz may not be strong at home, St. Pauli away from home is bound to be defensive, and the pace of the game may be dull. 2. Form level: Both teams may be in a phase where they are looking for stability rather than taking risks. 3. Data level: The extremely low away win odds (0.75) are a visual reflection of market consensus and are often highly correlated with actual low-goal match outcomes. Prediction of the total number of goals in this match could be between 0-2 goals, with the most likely score being 1-0, 1-1 or 0-1.

Betting Although the data strongly supports the direction of the small ball, it is important to note that any bet is risky. Football matches are uncertain, such as early unexpected goals that can completely change the game landscape. Additionally, the extremely low odds of 1.12 and 0.75 mean that even if the bet hits, the return is extremely low and may not match the risk taken. It is recommended to think of this analysis as a judgment of the style of play and a rational view of the betting value.