Erling Haaland: Man City striker hot favourite for Golden Boot

Erling Haaland has made a prolific start to the Premier League season, scoring nine goals in his first seven games for Manchester City, which places him three goals ahead in the early race for the Golden Boot.

Although this is not his best personal start—having scored 11 goals in the first seven games of the 2022-23 season and 10 in the previous season—it remains highly impressive as all nine goals have come from open play, with no penalties involved.

Haaland is a strong favorite for the Golden Boot due to two main factors: the sheer number of goals he has already scored and the high quantity and quality of scoring opportunities he receives, combined with the slow starts of his usual rivals for the award.

The concept of expected goals (xG), which measures how many goals a player should score based on historical data from similar chances, highlights Haaland's advantage; his xG from normal play this season is significantly higher than any other player, meaning he would still lead in goals even with average finishing.

Specifically, Haaland has taken 29 non-penalty shots, 12 more than any other player, and while this volume is not unusual for him, the quality of these chances is unprecedented, with an average xG per shot of 0.27, indicating a historically high conversion rate.

Among players with at least 10 shots, only Chelsea's Enzo Fernandez has had easier chances on average, largely due to simple tap-ins, further emphasizing the exceptional nature of Haaland's scoring opportunities this season.